Tag: Estimation

Multi-Release Burnup

In my experience, Agile projects almost never have a single milestone at the end. The business wants to see multiple milestones along the way, taking internal releases from the development team even if they’re not prepared to make them public. The simplest dashboard I know to illustrate this situation is a burnup chart with multiple goal lines, indicating the goals of each milestone.

This sort of chart is trivial to create by hand or with a spreadsheet. The typical Agile Project Management software, while providing a myriad of ways to view data, never seems to include something as simple and powerful as this. Fortunately, it doesn’t take much time to create your own. It takes a few minutes at the end of each sprint to update the chart, and you can make sure that the data is correct as you do so.

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Categories: Tools and Techniques

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Errors in Project Management

An article in USA Today (December 12, 2012) about highway projects in New York has the sub-head, “Design errors, planning lapses drove up costs more than 14%.” Among the things listed that “drove up costs” are

  • More asphalt than projected due to a math error
  • More temporary concrete dividers than planned, as plans called for only half what was needed
  • Unanticipated excavation costs.

It’s true that no one likes for costs to exceed estimates, Read More

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Categories: Responding to Change

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A Virtue of Imprecise Measurements

I’ve talked about The Importance of Precise Estimates. In that post, I said,

My advice is to

  • measure your progress
  • watch the trends
  • project the trends tentatively into the future

and relax.  It’ll work out the best it can.  False precision won’t make it any better.

Now I just read The Virtues of the Imprecisely Measured Self by Alex Knapp at Forbes. He tells the tale of a study in the journal Psychological Science April 2011 that indicates that precision, whether false or not, inhibits success.  Alex summarizes,

Precision can actually be the enemy of performance goals. To be sure, feedback is definitely a positive thing. But it appears that if you want to keep yourself motivated, it’s best to get a more generalized, imprecise feedback that lets you know you’re heading in the right direction, rather than the precise coordinates of where you are on the path.

It’s something to think about.

 

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Categories: Tools and Techniques

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Avoiding Iteration Zero

Teams new to Agile often realize that they have a lot to do before they get their new development process at full speed. Looking at this big and unknown hill in front of them, many Agile teams choose to do an Iteration Zero (or Sprint Zero) to prepare before they start delivering regular increments of functionality. During this time, they may try to get their ducks in a row with

  • A list of features to be built
  • A release plan or timeline for those features
  • Setting up development infrastructure such as version control or continuous integration servers
  • Studying or practicing skills in new technologies they expect to use
  • … and other management, infrastructure, and technical endeavors.

They try to get all the preliminaries out of the way so they can hit the ground running full speed in Iteration One. In my experience, they’re still not ready to go full speed. These things are rarely as complete as expected after one iteration, and often aren’t quite in tune with the actual needs of the project.

The list of features will likely not be complete, but the attempt to approach completeness will dump in lots of ideas that have been given little thought. Any attempt to project into the future still has no data about how fast things can be accomplished. The infrastructure may or may not be the best for supporting the project, but it is likely that the project will now conform to the infrastructure rather than the other way around. The choice of technologies will be made speculatively rather than driven by the needs of the project. While we may do OK, we’ll have made a lot of decisions with the least amount of information we’ll have in the project lifecycle.

And we’ll have burned an iteration without producing any working software that tests our decisions.

My advice is to borrow an idea from Lean and look at the situation from the output point of view.  Ask yourself, “what would it take to start delivering?” Read More

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Categories: Tools and Techniques Working Software

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Simplicity and Perspective

Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler. — Albert Einstein

Dave Rooney recently bemoaned on Twitter about how complicated people make things, pointing in particular to a thread on the scrumdevelopment yahoogroup.  It’s a thread that started with a question about a team wanting to adjust the Sprint Backlog in-sprint when something changed about their capacity to complete the work.  From there it spawned a long discussion about various ways to estimate the work and commit to it.

To me, most of these approaches to estimation are more complicated than is necessary.  Some go into detailed calculations that are far more complicated than what most teams do.  I could tell you a really simple technique, but I suspect most teams aren’t ready for extreme simplicity, yet. Read More

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Categories: Individuals and Interactions Tools and Techniques

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Accounting for Spikes

The term Spike Solution is associated in my mind with the early days of Extreme Programming.  I’m sure that it is built from prior ideas, as everything seems to be. If the term and the concept it describes predates the Chrysler C3 project (Ron Jeffries mentions using it there), I’ve not yet uncovered it. Ron credits Ward Cunningham for the term.  I’m sure there are predecessors, even if not expressed as distinctly.

The goal of a spike solution is to answer a question. For example, a spike may be used to test the feasibility of an algorithm or 3rd party library. It may be used to explore design alternatives for solving a sticky problem.  It’s called a spike because it drives all the way through the problem, but as narrowly focused as possible. It’s not a complete implementation. Associated complexity that is secondary to the question is likely stubbed out to reduce the clutter and increase the focus. Read More

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Categories: Tools and Techniques

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Projecting into the Future

In my recent posting on estimation precision, I briefly mentioned how you can estimate when certain features will be done, or estimate what features will be done by a given date, using a burn-up chart.  Some people don’t find this an obvious and easy thing to do.  Let me explain in more detail.

I’ll start with the assumption that you have a list of features you want to add to an application.  Some of the things you want to add may not be properly called features–they might be bug fixes, for example.  And the application might be brand-new, with zero functionality so far.  That’s OK, we can handle cases like that.  Let’s walk through how I do this… Read More

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Categories: Tools and Techniques

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The Importance of Precise Estimates

We’ve got a rather old bathroom scale.Borg-Ericson scale, circa 1950 I’ve found advertisements for this model ranging from 1949 to 1954.  My wife inherited it from her mother.  When we first got it, we set the “zero” weight to three pounds to give the “correct” weight.  Now it’s set closer to five pounds when nothing is on it.

The readings it gives are a little inconsistent.  When you bounce lightly up and down, you may get a different reading.  (I tend to take the smallest number I can get.) Read More

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Categories: Tools and Techniques

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The construction analogy — estimation

What got me thinking about the construction analogy with software development was a recent conversation I had with a design/build contracting company. We’re in the market for a new house. We sketched our design (which we’ve worked on for quite some time) and wrote up a list of general assumptions about level of quality and some details that we wanted. We sent this out as a letter to a bunch of builders.

That sounds somewhat like your typical business requirements document, doesn’t it? It’s too detailed (specifying implementation details) while simultaneously failing to mention important points. But it’s a starting point for conversations. Read More

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Categories: Customer Collaboration

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